Omaha 2.9.1
Released 18 October 2026
Through week 6 our live service projected 2026 games without any 2026 games in its data. It now learns from every game played this season, so a player whose role has changed since last year is projected from the role he has now. The 2024 figures on this page do not change.
How to read these numbers
Every figure below compares the simulation against a player’s own season average so far, scaled to how much of the game is left, roughly what a reader could work out without us. Zero means we add nothing over that. Positive means we beat it; negative means we are worse than it.
Measured across the 2024 season, weeks 1–18, rebuilding the model each week using only what was known at the time. 400 simulations per situation.
The change column is simply this version’s accuracy minus 2.9.0’s, each measured across everything that version covers, so the two columns you can see always account for it. We also measure the change on shared situations alone, which is a more sensitive test; where the two disagree we publish this one.
Accuracy by stat
| Stat | vs. season average | Change from 2.9.0 |
|---|---|---|
| Receiving touchdownsrare event | +21.0% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Rushing touchdownsrare event | +18.4% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Receiving yards | +15.4% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Rushing yards | +13.2% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Pass attempts | +12.2% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Passing yards | +10.4% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Completions | +9.0% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Passing touchdownsrare event | +6.6% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Rush attempts | +5.1% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Receptions | +4.6% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Targets | +4.0% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Average across all figures | +10.9% |
The average is an unweighted mean across the figures above. It is a summary of how we are doing, not a single score for the model: yards and counts are not measured in the same units, so combining them any more cleverly than this would just let passing yards decide the answer.
Each change carries the range the measurement can actually support. A change whose range crosses zero is shown in neutral rather than as a gain: we cannot tell it apart from no change, and we are not claiming it as one.
What changed
Our data provider publishes each season's plays and, separately, a file saying which players were on the field for each play. For 2026 the plays were out and the second file was not, and our loader treated the whole season as not yet started. So the simulation learned only from 2024 and 2025, and before kickoff each projection was pulled toward the player's 2025 average. A receiver who caught seven passes a game last year and plays half the snaps this year was projected for last year's role. The adjustment for the defense a back or tight end faces (2.8.0) was also switched off for 2026, because it needs this season's games. The service now loads the plays without the second file and uses weekly snap counts to tell who played, and it reports an error if the schedule shows games completed that it has no plays for.
Re-running 2026 weeks 2 to 6 both ways, before kickoff: rush attempts improve by 10.7 points and targets by 4.4, over 64 games. Backups gain most (weeks 3 to 6, once there are earlier weeks to rank a depth chart from): targets 15.7 points, receptions 6.8, receiving yards 6.2. All of these ranges are clear of zero.
They are measured on 2024, which has complete data, so they are identical to 2.9.0's. What changes is that the live service now uses the current season the way these figures always assumed.
What this version still gets wrong
- In the same 2026 check, starters' receiving figures moved slightly down (targets 1.6 points, receptions 2.4, receiving yards 3.1). Every one of those ranges spans zero, on 48 games.
- Snap counts say whether and how much a player played, not which plays he was on. The simulation still learns who takes the field in each formation from 2024 and 2025, so a changed role shows up in the season average before it shows up in the simulation.
- A rookie, or a player who has just changed teams, has only a game or two behind his 2026 numbers. Projections for him stay less certain until more games are played.