Omaha 2.7.1
Released 14 October 2026
Our live service now calibrates projections against the same season averages this page measures. It had been using averages pooled over three seasons, which made its pre-game projections less accurate than the figures published here, most of all for backups. The figures on this page do not change, because they always measured the corrected version.
How to read these numbers
Every figure below compares the simulation against a player’s own season average so far, scaled to how much of the game is left, roughly what a reader could work out without us. Zero means we add nothing over that. Positive means we beat it; negative means we are worse than it.
Measured across the 2024 season, weeks 1–18, rebuilding the model each week using only what was known at the time. 400 simulations per situation.
The change column is simply this version’s accuracy minus 2.7.0’s, each measured across everything that version covers, so the two columns you can see always account for it. We also measure the change on shared situations alone, which is a more sensitive test; where the two disagree we publish this one.
Accuracy by stat
| Stat | vs. season average | Change from 2.7.0 |
|---|---|---|
| Receiving touchdownsrare event | +20.4% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Rushing touchdownsrare event | +18.2% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Receiving yards | +14.7% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Pass attempts | +12.9% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Rushing yards | +12.9% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Passing yards | +11.0% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Completions | +9.6% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Passing touchdownsrare event | +6.9% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Rush attempts | +4.7% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Targets | +3.9% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Receptions | +3.8% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Average across all figures | +10.8% |
The average is an unweighted mean across the figures above. It is a summary of how we are doing, not a single score for the model: yards and counts are not measured in the same units, so combining them any more cleverly than this would just let passing yards decide the answer.
Each change carries the range the measurement can actually support. A change whose range crosses zero is shown in neutral rather than as a gain: we cannot tell it apart from no change, and we are not claiming it as one.
What changed
Before kickoff each projection is pulled partway toward the player's own average. The figures on this page were measured with each player's average for the current season, falling back to earlier seasons only for a player who has not played yet. The live service used one average pooled over the last three seasons, so a backup who had been a starter two years ago, or the reverse, was pulled toward a role he no longer has. Both now use the current-season definition, built by one shared function so they cannot drift apart again.
Re-scoring the same 2024 simulations both ways, the pooled averages cost rush attempts 3.6 points, targets 3.0, receptions 2.8 and rushing yards 1.6. Backups were hit hardest: receptions for third to fifth receivers 5.5 points, rush attempts for backup running backs 5.3, targets for backup tight ends 4.9. Receiving and passing yards were essentially unaffected.
They were measured with the current-season averages all along, so they are the same as 2.7.0's. What changes is that the live service now produces what they describe.
What this version still gets wrong
- The 'season average' shown beside a player also follows the new definition, so early in a season it can rest on only a game or two. The number of games behind it is shown with it.
- Before kickoff our rushing projections for starting running backs are still no better than their own season averages. That is the next thing to fix in the simulation itself.