Omaha 2.8.0
Released 14 October 2026
Running backs and tight ends are now projected for more or fewer targets depending on the defense they face, because some defenses consistently feed them the ball and others take them away. Where the adjustment is largest, target forecasts improve by more than two points in both seasons we checked. Across every player the figures barely move: the average goes from +10.83% to +10.84%.
How to read these numbers
Every figure below compares the simulation against a player’s own season average so far, scaled to how much of the game is left, roughly what a reader could work out without us. Zero means we add nothing over that. Positive means we beat it; negative means we are worse than it.
Measured across the 2024 season, weeks 1–18, rebuilding the model each week using only what was known at the time. 400 simulations per situation.
The change column is simply this version’s accuracy minus 2.7.1’s, each measured across everything that version covers, so the two columns you can see always account for it. We also measure the change on shared situations alone, which is a more sensitive test; where the two disagree we publish this one.
Accuracy by stat
| Stat | vs. season average | Change from 2.7.1 |
|---|---|---|
| Receiving touchdownsrare event | +20.4% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Rushing touchdownsrare event | +18.2% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Receiving yards | +14.7% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Pass attempts | +12.9% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Rushing yards | +12.9% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Passing yards | +11.0% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Completions | +9.6% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Passing touchdownsrare event | +6.9% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Rush attempts | +4.7% | +0.00+0.00 to +0.00 |
| Targets | +4.0% | +0.07+0.02 to +0.12 |
| Receptions | +3.8% | +0.06+0.00 to +0.11 |
| Average across all figures | +10.8% |
The average is an unweighted mean across the figures above. It is a summary of how we are doing, not a single score for the model: yards and counts are not measured in the same units, so combining them any more cleverly than this would just let passing yards decide the answer.
Each change carries the range the measurement can actually support. A change whose range crosses zero is shown in neutral rather than as a gain: we cannot tell it apart from no change, and we are not claiming it as one.
What changed
Before kickoff each projection is pulled partway toward the player's own season average, and that average describes him against the defenses he has already played. Some defenses give up far more throws to running backs or tight ends than those players usually see, and some far fewer, and they do it week after week. The average the projection is pulled toward is now adjusted for what this week's defense has allowed to his position so far this season, scaled down when that record is short. It applies to targets and receptions.
On the tenth of projections the adjustment moves most, the target forecast improves by 2.5 points across 2024 and 2.2 across 2025, both ranges clear of zero, and receptions by 2.3 points in 2024. Where it raised a projection the average went from 2.47 to 2.63 targets against an actual 2.70 (2025: 2.74 to 2.92 against 2.86). Where it lowered one, 2.68 to 2.47 against 2.40 (2025: 3.07 to 2.86 against 2.79).
The simulation itself is unchanged. Only running back and tight end targets and receptions before and early in a game move; every other figure for every player is identical to 2.7.1.
What this version still gets wrong
- Across all players the change is small: targets improve by 0.07 points and receptions by 0.06 in 2024 (0.04 each in 2025). Both 2024 ranges are clear of zero, but most matchups are close to average, so most projections hardly move.
- It is about the matchup, not the player. No running back or tight end's projections shift by more than about 3% over a season, because the defenses he faces feed and starve his position in turn. One game is still close to a coin flip against the normal swing in targets.
- Wide receivers are not adjusted. A defense's record against receivers did not predict what it allowed next, so there is nothing reliable to apply.
- Receiving yards are not adjusted. Tested with the rest, the yardage forecast did not improve and overshot when the adjustment raised it.
- A defense needs two games of the current season before its record is used, so the first two weeks are unchanged.